Betting Tip #1: Keep track of injuries and resting players
If you’ve ever bought a ticket to a Wednesday night NBA game weeks in advance and then found out the day of that a few of the star starters weren’t playing, you probably already know that this is a major factor in NBA betting. “Load management” is a real thing, and it definitely affects the betting market.
Betting Tip #2: Keep an eye on schedules
As athletic as NBA players are, they’re still human. They still get tired.
And because the 82-game schedule is so jam-packed, teams often find themselves in back-to-back situations, meaning they have to play two nights in a row. And it can get even worse: They could play three games in four nights, which sounds pretty exhausting even for the most fit player.
Betting Tip #3: Look at market data and (usually) fade the public
It is important to note that blindly following any betting system or trend isn’t wise, for two reasons. First, those are based on past data, which could change. And second, liquid markets trend towards efficiency, so even if they had an edge at some point, it may not in the future.
We recommend following reliable statistics analysis websites such as basketball references to collect reliable statistics. However – it is important to note the human factor 0 being that there may always be surprising outliers!
That said, looking at trends and systems can help you identify spots to target, especially ones where you’re fading the masses.
Betting Tip #4: Line shop!
While it may seem like it doesn’t matter that much whether you bet on the Lakers at -4 or -4.5 — how often will it land on the number anyway, you may ask — over the long run, it definitely makes a big difference for your expected value on NBA betting.
It’s already difficult enough to track all of the NBA information and win long-term in the betting market, so make sure you at least get the best odds in the market.
Among the states that have fully online, legal betting, many of them have a ton of options from which to choose. In New Jersey, for example, you can shop across eight different books to make sure you’re getting the best of the number. Again, why bet -4.5 when you can get -4?
Betting Tip #5: Identify your betting patterns, strengths/weaknesses
Based on betting records, we advise sticking to a preferred style. For example, you can stick with total overs and under or gravitate toward several specific teams that you are familiar with.
Instead of betting on all the big matches and favoring either the underdog or the stronger team, it is better to favor several teams where you are familiar with the ins and outs of, this way you can compare them to specific matchups and gauge how they can perform.